TL;DR

• BTC is up & ETH is down

• BTC over-performed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $HBAR

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC up by 0.8% and ETH down by 5.5%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 57.53% to a high of 58.6% and ending at 58.07%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim the $90,000 level after falling below $95,000 on February 24. Recent volatility has been the highest since Q3 2024, with Bitcoin’s annualized realized volatility surging, according to Glassnode.

While traders brace for more price swings ahead of the first-ever U.S. crypto summit at the White House, analysts have pointed to the sharp decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move.

Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, Jamie Coutts, noted that DXY’s recent three-day decline of over 3% ranks among the four largest drops in history. Coutts’ historical analysis of similar declines since 2013 suggests that Bitcoin has a 100% probability of rising when the dollar falls by 2.5% or more. He projected that Bitcoin could reach an all-time high (ATH) by May 2025, with a best-case scenario pushing BTC to $143,000.

Julien Bittel, macro research head at Global Macro Investor, echoed this bullish outlook, emphasizing that easing financial conditions typically boost risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Despite optimism linked to DXY’s decline, Bitcoin’s price dropped by over 5% in 24 hours to $88,100, reacting negatively to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Market participants initially expected a government initiative to acquire more Bitcoin with taxpayer funds, but the reserve will consist only of BTC already seized by the U.S. government. Crypto strategist David Sacks confirmed that the reserve’s establishment “will not cost taxpayers a dime.”

The announcement disappointed traders hoping for a more aggressive government-backed Bitcoin accumulation. Capital markets analyst The Kobeissi Letter noted that the reserve merely ensures the U.S. government retains its existing Bitcoin holdings rather than purchasing additional BTC. This led to an 8.7% drop in Bitcoin’s price from $92,790 on March 6 to an intraday low of $84,700 on March 7.

Bitcoin’s price downturn was exacerbated by ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen withdrawals totaling $3.87 billion over the past two weeks. On February 25 alone, Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.14 billion in outflows—the largest single-day withdrawal since their inception. On March 6, another $134.3 million was pulled from these funds.

Crypto insights firm Alva attributed these outflows to uncertainty surrounding Trump’s Bitcoin reserve announcement, as well as growing concerns among institutional investors about Bitcoin’s decentralization. Major ETFs like Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK’s ARKB recorded significant withdrawals, reflecting broader market trepidation.

Bitcoin’s immediate price trajectory depends on its ability to hold above critical support levels. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $85,550 serves as a key support level, with a daily close below this threshold potentially triggering a drop toward $81,500 or even $78,200. Conversely, reclaiming resistance between $92,800 (100-day EMA) and $94,000 (50-day EMA) could pave the way for Bitcoin to retest $100,000.

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the key price ranges, noting that Bitcoin must reclaim $90,800 to maintain bullish momentum, while an eventual break toward an ATH of $109,000 remains a long-term target.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently at a critical juncture, trading below $2,300 as market indicators present mixed signals regarding its future trajectory. While key technical metrics suggest undervaluation, ETH continues to face downward pressure amid broader market uncertainty.

A significant metric highlighting Ethereum’s current state is its MVRV Z-Score, which has dropped to its lowest level in 17 months. This indicator, which compares Ethereum’s market value to its realized value, suggests that ETH is now in an accumulation phase.

Historically, similar levels in October 2023 preceded a 160% rally, pushing ETH toward the $4,000 mark. If history repeats itself, this could indicate the early stages of another major bullish reversal heading into 2025.

Additionally, CryptoQuant data highlights a surge in daily ETH inflows into accumulation addresses, surpassing previous accumulation phases that preceded significant price rallies. Institutional investors and long-term holders appear to be aggressively accumulating ETH, reinforcing the narrative that Ethereum’s current price could be a discount opportunity.

The behavior of Ethereum whales further supports the accumulation trend. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have been increasing their holdings since July 2024, coinciding with the approval of Ether-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. This suggests that large investors are buying the dip in anticipation of long-term price appreciation.

According to Glassnode data, the number of Ethereum whales has slightly increased to 5,768 from 5,762 on March 5. However, this remains below the February 22 count of 5,828, indicating that while some accumulation is taking place, the broader trend has yet to reverse.

Analysts speculate that this recent uptick in whale numbers could be linked to the White House Crypto Summit, where discussions about Ethereum’s potential inclusion in the U.S. strategic crypto reserve may have influenced investor sentiment.

Ethereum is currently trading around $2,291, testing the lower trendline support of a symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-week EMA at $2,294. This support confluence is critical for ETH’s potential rebound. Historically, similar setups have preceded major uptrends, with price targets aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.

To establish a bullish breakout, Ethereum must reclaim the $2,518 resistance (0.382 Fib level), which would open the door toward $3,000 and potentially $3,420. A move beyond these levels would set ETH up for a retest of $4,063, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

On the downside, failure to hold the $2,077 support level could see ETH decline toward $1,996. If bearish momentum intensifies, Ethereum risks further losses, with the ultimate downside target near $1,050, as indicated by the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level.

While Ethereum’s BBTrend indicator has improved slightly, it remains negative at -2.6, signaling weak bullish momentum. A move into positive territory would confirm a stronger trend reversal.

The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining Ethereum’s direction, with institutional accumulation and key resistance levels playing a pivotal role in shaping its market trajectory.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of March 7, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $2,156.24, having broken below the key support level at $2,240. The price remains within a horizontal trend channel, indicating continued movement in the same direction. A negative signal from the moving averages suggests further downside, with immediate support at $2,100 and resistance near $2,240.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of March 7, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $87,643, down -5.02% on the day. The short-term outlook remains bearish, with support at $80,000 and resistance at $93,000. In the medium term, BTC has broken below key levels, with a downside target of $77,810 - $81,630, reinforcing a negative trend. The long-term outlook is neutral, with support at $72,000 and resistance at $106,000. A move above $92,000 could signal recovery, while a drop below $80,000 may trigger further declines.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at $2,100; Resistance at $2,240.

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $80,000; Resistance at $93,000.

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin faces short-term uncertainty, with key support at $85,550 (200-day EMA) and resistance at $92,800. ETF outflows and disappointment over Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve have pressured prices, but historical correlations with a weakening DXY suggest a potential rally. If BTC holds support, a rebound toward $100,000 remains plausible, while failure could lead to a retest of $78,200.

Ethereum remains under pressure below $2,300, with weak bullish momentum despite increased whale accumulation. The MVRV Z-Score indicates undervaluation, historically preceding strong rebounds. Key resistance lies at $2,550, with a breakout potentially targeting $3,000-$3,650. However, failure to hold $2,077 support could trigger a decline toward $1,996. Market sentiment hinges on technical confirmations and regulatory developments.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH exchange rate has generally increased, rising from 37.52 ETH on March 2 to 40.20 ETH on March 8, marking an overall 7.14% increase. Despite a brief dip on March 7 (-0.90%) and March 8 (-0.90%), the trend remained upward, with notable gains on March 3 (6.52%) and March 6 (1.16%). This suggests that Bitcoin has been gaining strength against Ethereum over the past week.

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Hot Coin: $HBAR🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into Hedera’s token with the ticker: $HBAR.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and don’t seem to stop any time soon:

What is the project about?

Hedera is a fully open-source public distributed ledger that utilizes the fast, fair, and secure hashgraph consensus. Unlike traditional blockchains, Hedera’s unique architecture enables high-speed transaction finality, enhanced scalability, and low-cost operations while significantly reducing environmental impact.

The network provides a robust suite of services, including Solidity-based smart contracts, native tokenization, and consensus mechanisms that empower developers to build and scale decentralized applications (dApps). By leveraging hashgraph technology, Hedera ensures enterprise-grade security, efficiency, and fairness in transaction processing.

HBAR, the network’s native cryptocurrency, facilitates transactions and secures the ecosystem, while developers can utilize Hedera’s open infrastructure to create custom tokens and applications. With its governance model backed by leading global organizations, Hedera stands as a reliable and scalable alternative to blockchain-based distributed ledgers.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are four main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Grayscale’s Spot Hedera ETF Proposal

• Unique Hashgraph Technology

• Strong Enterprise Governance and Partnerships

• Expansion of Smart Contract and Tokenization Services

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