TL;DR

• BTC is down & ETH is down

• BTC over-performed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $AKT

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC down by 2.9% and ETH down by 10.9%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 58.16% to a high of 59.11% and ending at 58.78%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating in a narrowing range, with key macroeconomic factors and shifting market dynamics influencing its stagnation.

Since March 9, BTC has been oscillating between $78,599 and $84,000, struggling to break past the $84,000 resistance level. The primary reasons for Bitcoin’s lack of momentum include geopolitical uncertainties, weakening demand, and critical technical resistance levels.

Bitcoin’s stagnation coincides with heightened global economic uncertainty, largely driven by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The potential trade war has spooked investors, prompting a flight from risk assets like Bitcoin to traditional safe havens such as gold.

Glassnode data suggests that Bitcoin’s demand has weakened, as seen in short-term holder (STH) cost basis trends. The cost basis of 1-week to 1-month holders flattened above that of 1-month to 3-month holders in Q1, signaling early signs of weakening demand. This shift was confirmed when Bitcoin dropped below $95,000, causing the STH cost basis to slide beneath the longer-term holders’ basis.

Glassnode analysts noted that “macro uncertainty has spooked demand, reducing new inflows,” suggesting that buyers are hesitant to absorb selling pressure. This cautious sentiment is reflected in Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rates, which are hovering around 0%, indicating a lack of strong directional bets from traders.

Bitcoin’s technical setup further supports its current stagnation. On March 9, BTC fell below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,736, a critical level that has since acted as a resistance barrier.

Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades emphasized the significance of the 200-day SMA at $83,700 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $86,000, calling them “solid indicators of the mid/long-term trend and overall strength of the market.” Failure to reclaim these levels could extend Bitcoin’s consolidation period or even lead to a deeper correction.

Adding to Bitcoin’s woes, the BTC/XAU ratio recently broke below a rising support trendline that had held for over 12 years. According to analyst NorthStar, if Bitcoin remains under this trendline for an extended period, it could signal the end of its long-term bullish cycle.

Bitcoin’s underperformance against gold has been stark. While spot gold hit a record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, Bitcoin has declined 11% year-to-date.

This divergence is largely driven by capital flows: U.S.-based spot gold ETFs have attracted $6.48 billion in 2025, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $1.46 billion in outflows, reflecting investor preference for traditional safe-haven assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could be in for further downside. The current BTC/XAU breakdown mirrors the March 2021–March 2022 fractal, which preceded Bitcoin’s last bear market. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could drop below the 50-period two-week EMA support at $65,000.

While some analysts consider this a correction within a broader bull market, a definitive break below the 50-2W EMA could push Bitcoin into bearish territory, with the 200-period two-week EMA at $34,850 as a potential downside target.

Until macroeconomic conditions improve, Bitcoin may struggle to break out of its consolidation range, with risks skewed to the downside.

Ethereum faces contrasting market dynamics as staking reaches record highs while ETFs witness significant outflows. 

Despite a 30% price drop, staked ETH has surged to 33.98 million, highlighting strong long-term investor confidence. Conversely, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded over $524 million in outflows over the past three weeks, reflecting weakened institutional sentiment.

ETH’s price decline from $3,200 to $1,800 has not deterred long-term holders. The growing staking activity suggests investors see Ethereum’s downturn as a buying opportunity. This trend indicates confidence in Ethereum’s future developments and passive yield potential.

Ethereum ETFs have seen sustained outflows, bringing total net assets down to $6.49 billion. This selloff coincided with ETH’s drop below $2,000, likely due to regulatory concerns and broader market uncertainty. While stakers remain optimistic, ETF redemptions may continue pressuring ETH in the short term.

ETH traded at $1,893 with bearish indicators dominating. The RSI at 33.13 indicated oversold conditions, while the MACD showed persistent selling momentum. A further drop below $1,850 could trigger more downside, while a break above $1,950 may signal a reversal.

After falling to $1,744, ETH faces a 29% climb to reclaim $2,500. Weak leverage demand and risk-averse sentiment have slowed recovery. However, Ethereum’s growing Layer-2 adoption and network efficiency improvements offer long-term support. Daily Layer-2 operations have surged, reducing transaction costs and bolstering network utility.

Ethereum maintains its position as a leading smart contract platform, with its total value locked (TVL) reaching 24 million ETH, the highest since July 2022. The network also reclaimed its dominance in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, surpassing Solana with $20.5 billion in weekly transactions. These factors could support ETH’s recovery once macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

Ethereum’s outlook remains uncertain in the short term due to ETF outflows and market volatility. However, its staking resilience, Layer-2 expansion, and DeFi dominance suggest a strong foundation for future growth.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of March 14, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $1,891.51, remaining within a falling trend channel, signaling continued bearish momentum. The lack of support levels suggests further downside risk, with key resistance at $2,230. Negative volume balance and increasing volatility indicate strong selling pressure, making short-term recoveries uncertain.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of March 14, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $81,965, down 1.61% on the day. The short-term outlook is bearish, with support at $80,000 and resistance at $92,600. A break below support could accelerate losses. In the medium term, Bitcoin has weak negative momentum, with key levels at $70,000 (support) and $93,000 (resistance). The long-term trend remains bullish, with support at $72,000 and upside potential toward $106,000.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at N/A; Resistance at $2,230.

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $80,000; Resistance at $92,600.

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin remains range-bound amid economic uncertainty and weakening demand. Resistance at $84,000 and declining inflows signal cautious sentiment. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breakdown suggests further downside, with key support at $70,000 and a potential drop toward $65,000 if bearish momentum persists. A recovery depends on macroeconomic shifts, including potential Fed rate cuts.

Ethereum faces conflicting signals as ETF outflows surpass $500 million, reflecting institutional caution, while staking hits an all-time high of 33.98 million ETH, signaling strong long-term confidence. Price action remains weak, with ETH struggling near $1,900, but indicators suggest potential stabilization. A move above $1,950 could trigger recovery, while macroeconomic shifts and on-chain growth—such as rising TVL and L2 adoption—support a longer-term bullish case.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH exchange rate has generally increased, rising from 40.11 ETH on March 9 to 44.00 ETH on March 15, marking an overall 9.70% increase. Despite a brief dip on March 13 (-0.94%), the trend remained upward, with notable gains on March 10 (4.00%) and March 11 (3.59%). This suggests that Bitcoin has been gaining strength against Ethereum over the past week.

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Hot Coin: $AKT🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into Akash Network’s token with the ticker: $AKT.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and doesn’t seem to stop any time soon:

What is the project about?

In a nutshell, Akash is a decentralized form of cloud computing, or in other words, a decentralized version of Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft’s Azure, or Google Cloud. AWS, which by far has the largest market share of cloud services, currently supports many Fortune500 companies, from everything including McDonald’s to Ethereum node validators.

Just to give you an idea of how big the cloud computing market has become, if it wasn’t for AWS then Amazon would struggle to stay profitable post-COVID in 2022:

So cloud computing is a massive market with juicy margins that can be attacked by disrupters like Akash. Hence, the potential for new players is large to challenge incumbents with new promising tech such as blockchain. This is exactly what Akash is doing, and they are already getting ahead of these big players when it comes to price:

Essentially, Akash is becoming an unstoppable supercloud enabling users to buy and sell compute resources on a decentralized network, which could become a bigger industry than DeFi itself.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are three main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Addressable market

• Better resource utilisation

• Better tech

• Envision Labs Joins the Akash Supercloud

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