TL;DR

• BTC is down & ETH is up

• BTC under-performed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is down

• The hot coin we look at this week is $TON

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC down by 0.3% and ETH up by 3.4%:

Bitcoin dominance has decreased over the week, starting from 58.81% to a low of 57.98% and ending at 58.36%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to regain its bullish momentum after rebounding 14% from a four-month low of $76,600 on March 11.

Despite briefly touching $87,000 on March 20, BTC has since dropped to around $84,000, raising concerns among traders about the possibility of further declines. Analysts point to key technical patterns and bearish indicators that suggest Bitcoin could fall as low as $65,000 in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin's price action has formed concerning bearish patterns, with multiple analysts highlighting signals of continued downward movement. GDXTrader noted that Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure after failing to break above $87,470, a key resistance level within a descending channel.

Additionally, a "dark cloud cover" pattern—where a strong green candle is followed by a red candle closing below its midpoint—has reinforced the bearish sentiment. According to GDXTrader, Bitcoin remains under pressure unless it decisively breaks above the $90,000-$93,000 resistance zone.

Trader CrediBULL Crypto also identified Bitcoin's rejection in the $86,000-$88,000 range as a "perfect rejection," signaling a high probability of further declines. BTC has failed to reclaim this key supply zone, increasing the likelihood of a drop toward $77,000-$79,000. If this support breaks, Bitcoin could extend its losses to the $65,000-$74,000 range by April.

Analysts have also highlighted Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both of which are displaying bear flag patterns. CryptOpus pointed out that Bitcoin itself is trading within a bear flag, where an ascending parallel channel follows a sharp decline. The lower boundary of this flag sits at $84,000, and a break below this level could trigger a sell-off toward $72,000.

From a longer-term perspective, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has plummeted to its lowest level since January 2023, signaling deteriorating investor sentiment. The index, which measures bullish metrics out of ten key indicators, has dropped to 20, well below the 60 threshold associated with strong rallies. Historically, values below 40 have indicated prolonged bear markets, suggesting a weak investment environment for Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has echoed these bearish sentiments, stating that the Bitcoin bull cycle may be over. He predicts "6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action," further dampening hopes for an immediate recovery.

Technical analysis from AlphaBTC also suggests deeper losses, with Bitcoin's bear flag indicating a 28% drop from current levels. If BTC breaks below $83,700, the pattern's downside target sits at approximately $60,000.

AlphaBTC warns that losing the $83,630 support level would confirm further weakness, potentially leading to a drop toward $75,000 before testing the lower range.

Bitcoin remains under significant bearish pressure as key technical indicators and market sentiment point toward further declines. With multiple analysts warning of potential drops to the $65,000-$74,000 range—and some even suggesting a move toward $60,000—traders are closely watching support levels. Unless Bitcoin can break decisively above $90,000, the risk of a prolonged correction remains high.

Ethereum Struggles Below $2,000 as Market Sentiment Weakens

Ethereum (ETH) continues to face downward pressure, failing to sustain levels above $2,000 amid rising bearish momentum. Despite briefly touching the psychological threshold following the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, ETH has since retreated as technical indicators signal a fading bullish trend and consolidation risks.

Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 46.63 from 71 within two days, according to TradingView data.

This decline moves ETH into neutral territory, reflecting a loss of buying momentum and increasing chances of extended consolidation or further downside. The RSI, a key momentum oscillator, suggests that ETH lacks the buying strength needed to sustain a rally.

Further reinforcing bearish sentiment, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows that Ethereum’s -DI has climbed to 23.12 from 11.17, while the +DI has dropped to 21.17 from 34, signaling a shift in market control toward sellers.

The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength, has weakened to 17.96 from 24.5. A drop below 20 typically indicates a lack of clear market direction, increasing the probability of consolidation rather than an immediate rebound.

Traders are closely monitoring critical support zones at $1,867 and $1,823. A decisive break below these levels could open the door for a further decline toward $1,759, potentially testing sub-$1,700 levels for the first time since October 2023.

On the upside, Ethereum needs to reclaim $2,106 to signal any meaningful recovery, with resistance targets at $2,320 and $2,546—representing a potential 30% upside from current levels.

Despite Ethereum’s price struggles, open interest in ETH futures hit an all-time high of 10.23 million ETH on March 21, according to CoinGlass. Binance, Gate.io, and Bitget collectively control 51% of the market, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) holds a 9% share. This surge in open interest suggests increased institutional activity, but it does not necessarily indicate bullish positioning.

The annualized premium for ETH monthly futures has dropped below 4% from 5% over the past two weeks, signaling reduced demand for leveraged long positions. This decline suggests that traders are hesitant to take bullish bets despite increased derivatives activity.

Ethereum’s recent weakness is partly attributed to declining interest in Ether-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Over the two weeks ending March 20, US-based ETFs experienced $307 million in net outflows, reflecting broader investor caution amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Rising recession risks, tariff wars, and US government spending cuts have dampened sentiment across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Additionally, Ethereum’s seven-day base layer revenue has dropped sharply to $605,000 as of March 17, down from $2.5 million just two weeks earlier. This decline highlights waning demand for decentralized applications (DApps) and layer-2 solutions, which have struggled to maintain engagement despite Ethereum’s scalability improvements.

With Ethereum facing technical weakness, declining futures premiums, and macroeconomic headwinds, market sentiment remains cautious. While a breakout above $2,106 could revive bullish momentum, failure to hold key support levels may lead to further downside risks. Analysts remain divided on Ethereum’s next move, with leveraged demand showing no strong bullish positioning despite record-high open interest.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of March 22, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $1,988.74, remaining in a falling trend channel, indicating sustained selling pressure. There is no clear support level, suggesting further downside risk. If a rebound occurs, resistance is expected at $2,230. The volume balance remains negative, weakening ETH in the short term, while volatility has surged, with a 38.35% decline over the past 66 days.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of March 22, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $84,339. The short-term outlook is weak, with support at $80,000 and resistance at $92,600, indicating downside risk. In the medium term, Bitcoin has broken below a rising trend, with support at $70,000 and resistance at $92,000, suggesting neutral momentum. The long-term trend remains bullish, with support at $72,000 and resistance at $106,000, pointing to continued upside potential.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at N/A; Resistance at $2,230

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $80,000; Resistance at $92,600

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin faces bearish pressure, struggling below $87,470 resistance. A bear flag pattern signals a possible drop to $65,000–$74,000, with $83,700 as key support. The Bull Score Index at 20 suggests weak sentiment, and CryptoQuant’s CEO warns of prolonged bearish action. A break below $83,700 could trigger a fall to $60,000.

Ethereum struggles below $2,000 as bearish momentum builds. Key support at $1,867 and $1,823 must hold to avoid deeper losses. Weak futures demand and macro risks add pressure, while a break above $2,106 could signal recovery.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen a decrease:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH exchange rate has generally decreased, falling from 43.78 ETH on March 16 to 42.42 ETH on March 22, marking an overall 3.11% decline. Despite a brief gain on March 20 (0.99%) and March 21 (0.55%), the trend remained downward, with notable losses on March 18 (-1.48%) and March 19 (-1.83%). This suggests that Bitcoin has been losing strength against Ethereum over the past week.

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Hot Coin: $TON🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into Toncoin’s token with the ticker: $TON.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and doesn’t seem to stop any time soon:

What is the project about?

TON (The Open Network) is a Layer 1 blockchain designed for financial applications and seamless Web3 integration. Originally developed by Telegram, it now operates under the TON Foundation.

Using a multi-layer architecture with masterchains, workchains, and sharding, TON enables fast, scalable transactions. It supports decentralized services like TON Storage (file storage), TON Proxy (private browsing), and TON DNS (human-readable addresses).

With Telegram’s vast user base as a gateway, TON aims to drive mainstream blockchain adoption, offering a seamless experience for users and developers while competing with major smart contract platforms in scalability and efficiency.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are three main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Major Venture Capital Investment

• Partnerships Enhancing Ecosystem Growth

• High-Speed, Scalable Transactions

• Seamless Telegram Integration

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