TL;DR

• BTC is up & ETH is down

• BTC over-performed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $BERA

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC up by 0.1% and ETH down by 3.6%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 58.37% to a low of 58.19% and ending at 58.82%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin Market Update: Analysts Warn of Deeper Pullback Amid Macro Concerns

Bitcoin (BTC) has faced renewed selling pressure, dropping 3.5% to an intraday low of $84,120 on March 28, as macroeconomic conditions continue to weigh on risk assets.

Analysts suggest that further downside could push BTC towards $72,000-$75,000 if liquidity conditions remain unchanged.

Capital Flows, a macroeconomic analyst, highlighted the significance of macro liquidity in Bitcoin’s recent price action. The analyst noted that BTC is exhibiting a growing correlation with traditional risk assets, making it vulnerable to capital shifts away from higher-risk investments.

“Broadly speaking right now, the macro liquidity backdrop is neutral. Rates have come down marginally, but the carry trade continues to create risk for assets,” Capital Flows stated. Despite an increase in the Global M2 money supply, the lack of expansion in available liquidity could limit Bitcoin’s upside potential.

Bitcoin’s recent price movements have also been influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, effective April 2025.

The tariffs have rattled global markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.33% and the Nasdaq declining by 0.53%. The Kobeissi Letter emphasized that “the trade war is back,” warning that the market reaction to Trump’s tariff policies could extend Bitcoin’s downturn.

Crypto analysts remain cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. Popular trader Crypto Chase described the current setup as a “do or die” moment, stressing the need for BTC to hold above $85,270 to avoid further losses.

Meanwhile, Michael van de Poppe of MN Capital warned of a potential retest of the $78,000-$80,000 range if Bitcoin fails to maintain support at $84,000.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades suggested that reclaiming $90,000 would be crucial for invalidating the current bearish trend.

As market volatility remains high, traders are closely watching Bitcoin’s ability to hold key support levels while macroeconomic uncertainties continue to shape its trajectory.

ETHEREUM

Ethereum's price decline and weakening market structure have raised concerns among traders and analysts, as ETH fell 9.3% between March 26 and March 28, testing the $1,860 level for the first time in two weeks.

The drop triggered over $114 million in leveraged futures liquidations and caused the ETH futures premium to hit a one-year low, suggesting declining demand for leveraged long positions.

The ETH monthly futures premium, which typically trades above the spot price due to settlement risk and opportunity costs, has dropped to an annualized 2%, significantly below the neutral 5-10% range.

While some traders view this as a potential bottom signal, historical data suggests otherwise. For example, on Oct. 10, 2024, the premium fell to 2.6% following a 14% price decline but rebounded to 7% as ETH recovered. However, the current lack of demand for leveraged longs raises concerns about further downside risks.

ETH whales appear to be bracing for additional losses, as evidenced by the 25% delta skew in options markets, which has risen to 7%. This metric reflects a preference for put (sell) options over call (buy) options, indicating increased hedging activity.

Analysts also highlight Ethereum’s declining network activity and rising competition from layer-2 solutions and alternative blockchains as key factors limiting ETH’s upside potential.

Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on automobile imports has intensified market uncertainty, leading to capital outflows from risk assets like Ethereum.

Additionally, ETH faced $97 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with 91% of them being long positions.

The cascading effect of forced sell-offs has accelerated ETH’s downtrend, with technical analysts warning of a potential decline toward $1,200 if bearish momentum persists.

Despite the bearish outlook, Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade could provide much-needed relief. Investors are closely monitoring its potential impact on base layer fees and usability. Until then, ETH’s prospects of outperforming the broader altcoin market remain uncertain.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of March 28, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $1,929.60, experiencing a sharp decline of 4.96% in a day. The price remains in a falling trend channel, indicating continued bearish momentum. With no clear support levels, further downside is possible, while resistance stands at $2,230. Negative volume balance suggests stronger selling pressure, weakening buy interest.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of March 28, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $86,159, down 1.55% for the day. The short-term outlook remains weakly positive, with support at $80,000 and resistance at $93,000. In the medium term, BTC is in a downward trend, having met its objective at $80,521, with resistance at $92,500. The long-term trend remains neutral, with key support at $72,000 and resistance at $106,000. A breakout above $93,000 could shift sentiment bullish, while a drop below $80,000 may signal further downside.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at $1,800; Resistance at $2,230.

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $80,000; Resistance at $93,000

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable position, with downside risks outweighing bullish momentum in the short term. If macro liquidity remains constrained and risk assets face continued pressure, BTC could retest the $72,000-$75,000 zone. A reclaim of $90,000 would shift sentiment bullish again, but for now, caution prevails.

Ethereum remains under bearish pressure, with weakening market structure, rising liquidations, and macroeconomic uncertainties. The ETH futures premium and options data signal weak demand, while Trump’s tariffs add further risk-off sentiment. A potential drop to $1,200 looms unless the Pectra upgrade sparks renewed investor confidence.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH rate has generally increased, rising from 42.23 ETH on March 24 to 44.22 ETH on March 29, despite some daily fluctuations. The highest point was 44.47 ETH on March 28, while the lowest was on March 24 at 42.23 ETH. Although the last 24 hours saw a 3.04% decline, the overall trend for the past six days shows a gradual increase of approximately 4.7%.

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Hot Coin: $BERA🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into Berachain’s token with the ticker: $BERA.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and don’t seem to stop any time soon:

What is the project about?

Berachain is a next-generation layer-1 blockchain designed to optimize liquidity and capital efficiency through its unique proof-of-liquidity (PoL) consensus mechanism. Unlike traditional proof-of-stake (PoS) systems, Berachain requires validators to provide liquidity, ensuring deep market participation and reducing sell pressure on the native token.

Built as an EVM-identical chain, Berachain allows seamless integration for Ethereum-based applications while offering enhanced scalability through BeaconKit, a modular consensus framework.

By aligning incentives among liquidity providers, developers, and users, Berachain aims to create a highly liquid, capital-efficient blockchain that fosters innovation in decentralized finance (DeFi) and beyond.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are four main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Explosive Price Surge and High Trading Volume

• Strong DeFi Ecosystem Growth

• Innovative “Proof of Liquidity” Model

• Enhanced Capital Efficiency for DeFi

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