TL;DR

• BTC is down & ETH is down

• BTC over-performed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $EOS

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC down 0.5% and ETH down by 4.9%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 58.8% to a high of 59.98% and ending at 59.79%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin Eyes $100K Amid Decoupling From Stocks and Gold

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of decoupling from traditional assets, with some analysts predicting a rapid path toward the $100,000 level. As U.S. equities crumble under inflation fears and a renewed global tariff war, Bitcoin’s divergence from gold and the stock market has caught the attention of market participants.

Trump's Tariff Move Sparks Market Turmoil

On April 2, President Donald Trump announced sweeping global tariffs, triggering a sharp reaction across financial markets. The S&P 500 fell over 10% in the span of two days, with total losses reaching $3.5 trillion, according to Watcher Guru. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 2,200 points. In contrast, Bitcoin initially dipped to $82,500 but rebounded strongly to $84,700—a 4.5% recovery—defying broader market sentiment.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added to the uncertainty on April 4 by warning that Trump’s tariffs could drive “higher inflation and slower growth,” potentially derailing the Fed's plans for a soft landing. Powell emphasized the unpredictability of inflationary effects, stating, “While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent.”

Bitcoin Decouples, Market Watches Closely

Amid this turbulence, Bitcoin’s uncharacteristic strength has led analysts to believe a decoupling is underway. Independent market analyst Cory Bates shared a chart showing BTC rising while the S&P 500 and gold declined, commenting that Bitcoin “is decoupling right before our eyes.”

This trend has revived the “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” narrative. Gold recently surged to an all-time high of $3,167 before pulling back 4.8%. Market analyst MacroScope noted that a reclaim of $100,000 for Bitcoin would “imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” setting the stage for a new cycle of outperformance. Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred supported this outlook, pointing to historical data showing Bitcoin’s potential to grow “10 times or more than gold.”

Volatility Ahead Amid Mixed Signals

Despite the bullish sentiment, concerns remain. The BTC-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio is flashing a bearish fractal that mirrors the 2021 cycle. This pattern saw Bitcoin lose ground after testing the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the two-week chart. If history repeats, BTC could drop to $65,000 or even lower, with the 200-2W EMA pointing toward sub-$20,000 levels.

Geopolitical tensions are also fueling volatility. As China retaliates with 34% tariffs on U.S. goods, Trump has publicly pressured the Fed to cut rates, calling Powell “always late” in a Truth Social post. While March’s job data showed strength with 228,000 jobs added, inflation remains sticky, rising 2.8% year-over-year.

Investor Sentiment Split

While some traders anticipate Bitcoin as a safe haven amid global economic uncertainty, others caution against premature bullishness. A U.S. recession remains a key risk that could suppress Bitcoin’s momentum. Risk assets often underperform during downturns, and a sustained high-rate environment may further challenge upward movement.

Still, as traders eye historical trends and current macro divergence, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to entertain further volatility—and potentially, a renewed climb toward six-figure territory.

ETHEREUM

Ethereum transaction fees have dropped to multi-year lows, falling below $500,000 in daily revenue, down sharply from the $30 million peak in March 2024. This decline is largely due to the rollout of EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding), which introduced "blob" transactions that cut Layer 2 data costs.

Layer 2 networks like Base are now attracting more users who benefit from Ethereum’s security at much lower fees. Despite the fee drop, Ethereum continues to process about 1.2 million transactions daily.

While low fees improve accessibility for smaller users and DeFi projects, they pose a challenge for validators who now rely more on ETH issuance for rewards. The shift in network economics has weakened the usual link between usage and price.

Even though Ethereum remains a hub for stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) protocols, it has lagged behind Bitcoin in price performance this year.

Whales Are Buying the Dip
Onchain data shows that Ethereum whales have recently accumulated over 130,000 ETH as prices dipped to $1,781. This signals strong interest from smart money, similar to accumulation patterns seen before Ethereum’s breakout in 2023. That year, ETH rallied 71% in Q4 after a prolonged consolidation period.

Will Q2 Spark a Breakout?
Despite the bullish whale activity, Ethereum still faces hurdles. Its market dominance has dropped to just 8%, and the ETH/BTC ratio has sunk to a five-year low. Bitcoin’s dominance, now over 61%, continues to draw capital away from Ethereum. Unless this trend shifts, a repeat of the 2023-style rally may be delayed.

Ethereum’s Q2 performance will be key in determining whether current accumulation marks a market bottom or a continued consolidation phase.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of April 4, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $1,792.26, continuing its decline within a falling trend channel. The lack of visible support suggests further downside risk, while the next key resistance level is at $2,250. Momentum remains weak, and the recent 44% drop over 66 days reflects sustained bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of April 4, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $82,736. The short-term trend is negative, with resistance at $84,000 and support near $71,700. A break above resistance may signal a potential reversal, while a drop below support could deepen the correction. Medium-term momentum remains weak, with downside risk toward $70,000 despite a recent bounce from the $80,521 objective. The long-term trend is still positive, supported at $72,000 with upside potential toward $106,000.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at $1,700; Resistance at $2,250

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $71,700; Resistance at $84,000

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from equities and gold signals growing investor interest amid macro uncertainty. Despite Trump’s tariff war and Powell’s inflation warning, BTC holds above $83K. A break above $85K could trigger momentum toward $100K. Short-term volatility remains, but sentiment is turning bullish as capital rotates from traditional assets into crypto.

The crypto market is showing early signs of a potential Q2 recovery, led by aggressive accumulation in Ethereum and continued resilience in Bitcoin. However, Ethereum’s lagging dominance and capital rotation into BTC suggest that any rally may be uneven. Cautious optimism is warranted as smart money repositions, but confirmation of trend reversal is still pending.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH rate has shown a clear upward trend, increasing from 45.27 ETH on March 29 to 46.18 ETH on April 4. Despite minor daily fluctuations—such as a dip to 44.65 ETH on April 1—the overall movement has been positive. The largest single-day gain occurred on April 2 with a 2.76% increase. With a 1.39% rise in the past 24 hours and a net gain of 2.01 ETH over the six-day period, the BTC to ETH rate has generally increased.

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Hot Coin: $EOS🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into the EOS Network with the ticker: $EOS.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and don’t seem to stop anytime soon:

What is the project about?

EOS is a layer-1 blockchain designed to support high-performance decentralized applications by offering a Web2-like development experience through blockchain infrastructure. Unlike traditional networks that impose complex constraints on developers, EOS simplifies the dApp creation process by providing built-in features like secure authentication, data hosting, permission control, and efficient inter-dApp communication.

Built to emulate traditional web architecture, EOS enables developers to launch scalable applications while maintaining the benefits of decentralization. Its delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) consensus mechanism allows for faster transaction throughput and lower latency, making the network capable of handling enterprise-grade demands.

By offering an ecosystem that mirrors familiar platforms like Google Play or Apple’s App Store, EOS empowers developers and users to build, access, and scale decentralized apps efficiently. It aims to bridge the usability gap between Web2 and Web3 by making blockchain development accessible and commercially viable.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are four main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Explosive Price Surge and High Trading Volume

• Strong DeFi Ecosystem Growth

• Vaulta Banking Integration

• Technical Breakout and Short Squeeze Momentum

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