TL;DR

• BTC is down & ETH is down

• BTC overperformed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $CRV

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC down 0.9% and ETH down by 14.3%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 59.79% to a high of 60.74% and ending at 60.7%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

BTC Enters ‘Up Only’ Territory Amid Bond Market Chaos and Trader Accumulation

Bitcoin is positioning itself for a significant breakout as macroeconomic volatility in the United States and renewed on-chain accumulation drive bullish sentiment across the crypto landscape. Over the past week, BTC has gained nearly 10%, surging past $83,000 and signaling what BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes referred to as the beginning of “up only mode.”

The trigger behind this bullish tone is a deteriorating U.S. bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield spiking above 4.59%, marking its highest level in two months. According to Hayes, this sharp sell-off — the worst since 2019 — may force the Federal Reserve to intervene.

On X, he stated, “We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for $BTC.” Hayes anticipates that continued macroeconomic stress, particularly from rate volatility and declining confidence in U.S. policy, could drive capital into Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.

The weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which recently slipped below 100 for the first time since 2022, adds to this momentum. Crypto analyst Venturefounder emphasized that historic drops in DXY have often preceded “delayed but powerful Bitcoin bull runs,” potentially replicating conditions from previous market cycles. He added that a further decline in the DXY toward the 90 level could push Bitcoin into a parabolic advance, extending for months.

From a technical perspective, BTC is also supported by multiple bullish signals. Bollinger Bands creator John Bollinger noted that Bitcoin is forming a “classic” bottom near the $80,000 mark, while chart patterns point to a potential rally toward $100,000, particularly with a maturing falling wedge structure.

On-chain fundamentals align with this optimistic narrative. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Cap surpassed $18 billion for the first time since September 2024.

This indicator reflects the cost basis of investors holding BTC for over 155 days, typically regarded as a strong measure of smart money activity. Aggressive accumulation by this cohort previously marked a local bottom in Q3 2024, before BTC doubled in value.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s open interest dropped 28% from mid-December to early April, resembling the leverage reset that occurred ahead of the previous bull leg. While OI has rebounded nearly 10% over the past 24 hours, it suggests fresh participation in what could be the start of a renewed uptrend.

Support levels have also become more clearly defined. Glassnode data shows significant accumulation around $79,000 and a secondary cluster at $82,080, where tens of thousands of BTC changed hands.

These zones are now acting as firm support during short-term pullbacks. Technical analyst Cold Blooded Shiller highlighted Bitcoin’s current test of a descending trendline, noting it as a “very enticing” breakout setup.

In summary, a confluence of macroeconomic instability, favorable on-chain metrics, and technical setups has propelled Bitcoin into a strong position. With traders now pricing in multiple Fed rate cuts by year-end and dollar weakness accelerating, the stage appears set for BTC to continue its upward trajectory.

ETHEREUM

Ethereum (ETH) continues to struggle below the $1,600 mark, currently trading around $1,540, as bearish momentum intensifies across both technical and on-chain metrics. The recent decline follows a short-lived rally sparked by Trump's tariff pause announcement, with ETH giving back 4% of its gains as whale wallets offloaded massive amounts of tokens.

According to Lookonchain, one dormant whale sold 10,702 ETH at $1,576 after two years of inactivity, while another OG wallet liquidated nearly 8,000 ETH. A DeFi user added to the pressure by selling 28,999 ETH to repay debt. This wave of distribution has pushed the collective balance of whales holding between 10K and 100K ETH to a five-month low of 24.66 million ETH, per Santiment data.

TheKriptolik, a contributor to CryptoQuant, highlighted that ETH is now trading below its realized price, historically a bearish signal. "Drops below the realized price often mark the capitulation phase, where investors lose confidence and begin selling en masse," the analyst explained.

Historical precedents, such as the 2022 Terra and FTX collapses, were both preceded by similar patterns.

Spot Ethereum ETF flows have further underscored the weak sentiment. Farside Investors reported over $94 million in outflows over the past two weeks, contrasting sharply with the $13 million in inflows. CoinShares added that Ethereum investment products saw $37.4 million in outflows in the week ending April 4.

Derivatives data paints a similarly bleak picture. Open interest remains 48% below January’s peak, and funding rates across exchanges are negative, indicating a dominance of short positions.

If ETH fails to hold the $1,500 level, technical analysts warn of a potential slide toward the $1,000–$1,100 range, historically significant during the 2022 bear market. However, a bounce could see ETH attempt to reclaim $1,800 in the near term.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of April 12, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $1,553.93 and remains in a falling trend channel, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. There is no visible support in the current chart structure, suggesting potential for further decline. In the event of a rebound, resistance is expected at $2,220. Volatility remains elevated, reflecting uncertainty in the market.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of April 12, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $82,959. In the short term, BTC remains within a falling trend channel, with support at $80,000 and resistance at $84,000. A decisive breakout could dictate the next move. Medium-term indicators remain bearish following a completed double top pattern, with support at $70,000 and resistance at $92,500. Long-term signals are cautiously optimistic, with support at $72,000 and resistance at $106,000, suggesting the potential for renewed upward momentum.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at $1,500; Resistance at $2,220

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $80,000; Resistance at $84,000

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from equities and gold signals growing investor interest amid macro uncertainty. Despite Trump’s tariff war and Powell’s inflation warning, BTC holds above $83K. A break above $85K could trigger momentum toward $100K. Short-term volatility remains, but sentiment is turning bullish as capital rotates from traditional assets into crypto.

The crypto market remains under pressure as risk-off sentiment dominates, driven by macro uncertainty and sustained whale selling. Ethereum is testing critical support near $1,500, and a break lower could trigger a broader correction across altcoins. Until ETF flows recover and on-chain signals stabilize, the market outlook leans bearish.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH rate has shown a consistent and strong upward trend, rising from 46.31 ETH on April 5 to 53.24 ETH on April 11. This marks an overall increase of approximately 14.96%, driven by multiple consecutive daily gains, including a notable 5.02% jump on April 10 and 6.95% on April 6. Despite a minor dip on April 9, the general movement has been decisively upward.

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Hot Coin: $CRV🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into the Curve DAO with the ticker: $CRV.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and don’t seem to stop anytime soon:

What is the project about?

Curve Finance is a decentralized exchange (DEX) and automated market maker (AMM) primarily built on the Ethereum and Polygon blockchains. It specializes in facilitating efficient trading of stablecoins and volatile assets through liquidity pools. Unlike traditional exchanges, Curve enables users to trade directly from pools of assets without the need for counterparties, reducing slippage and minimizing fees.

Curve’s platform is designed to optimize stablecoin-to-stablecoin swaps, ensuring low price deviations during transactions. It also offers the over-collateralized stablecoin, crvUSD, backed by a unique liquidation mechanism. The protocol rewards liquidity providers with fees earned from trades, incentivizing participation.

With its decentralized, permissionless model, Curve offers users full control over their assets while providing an accessible environment for developers to deploy liquidity pools. Curve Finance plays a vital role in decentralized finance (DeFi) by offering efficient, low-cost, and secure trading for both individual traders and large investors.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are four main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Impressive Trading Volume Surge

• Bullish Market Sentiment

• Record Q1 Growth

• Founder’s Actions and Token Selling

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