TL;DR

• BTC is up & ETH is up

• BTC underperformed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $PAXG

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC up 1.2% and ETH up by 1.5%:

Bitcoin dominance increased over the week, starting at 60.67% and reaching a high of 61.02%, before settling at 60.91%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin Market Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a critical juncture, with analysts divided on its short-term trajectory yet aligned on a potentially explosive long-term upside.

Onchain accumulation by whales and macro-level fear indicators suggest the groundwork for a major move is underway, possibly propelling Bitcoin beyond the $100,000 mark.

Recent data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin whales—entities holding 100 to over 10,000 BTC—are accumulating at unprecedented levels.

Whales and sharks are currently absorbing over 300% of newly mined BTC, far surpassing Bitcoin’s yearly issuance rate. Simultaneously, centralized exchanges are witnessing their most significant outflows in history, with yearly absorption rates falling below -200%.

This signals a fundamental shift toward long-term conviction and self-custody. “Whale behavior is similar to what preceded Bitcoin’s 2020 bull run,” noted onchain analyst Mignolet.

The trend is echoed by Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score, where entities holding over 10,000 BTC are posting a strong 0.7 rating as of April 18—firmly in accumulation territory.

From a charting perspective, Bitcoin has broken out of a multimonth falling wedge pattern, historically a bullish formation. Based on standard technical measurements, this breakout sets a target above $101,000. However, BTC is still contending with resistance near its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) around $85,300.

Market analyst Scott Melker remains cautiously optimistic: “The 200-day moving average remains overhead as resistance, and the horizontal level at $88,804 is still the key barrier to flip market structure and print a higher high,” he wrote. “Encouraging – but not convincing – yet.”

On April 7, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 60—a rare signal historically associated with extreme market fear and potential bottoming in risk assets. Dan Tapiero, CEO of 10Tfund, highlighted that this level has only been reached five times in 35 years. “Odds favor better future,” Tapiero stated, implying that the market may be entering a phase of recovery and reaccumulation.

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, added that more than 55% of Nasdaq 100 stocks now register a 14-day RSI below 30, signaling extreme oversold conditions. He drew comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 COVID crash, both of which preceded major rebounds.

Bittel also cited sentiment data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), showing 62% of respondents are currently bearish—the highest level since March 2009. “We’re back at the same levels of fear that marked the bottom of the equity market after the Global Financial Crisis,” Bittel said, reinforcing the idea that liquidity could soon rotate into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Not all analysts are aligned on the bullish outlook. Market commentator Tony Severino suggested that the Bitcoin/VIX ratio currently indicates bearish pressure. Using Elliott Wave theory, Severino noted a sell signal from early January and warned that BTC may have already peaked this cycle, though he remains open to reassessing this view by month-end.

Conclusion

While short-term headwinds remain, especially around key resistance levels, both technical and onchain data point to a longer-term bullish setup. Whale accumulation, historic levels of fear, and technical breakout patterns suggest that Bitcoin could be gearing up for a substantial move—possibly toward the six-figure threshold in the coming months.

ETHEREUM

Ethereum (ETH) is teetering near a multiyear low in market dominance, with analysts warning of a potential price decline toward $1,100.

On April 9, ETH's share of the total crypto market capitalization dropped to 7.18%, just above its all-time low of 7.09% recorded in September 2019, according to data from TradingView.

Prominent analyst Rekt Capital noted the precarious position, stating, “Ethereum Dominance needs to hold this green area to position itself to become more market-dominant over the coming months.”

The decline comes amid rising competition from rival layer-1 blockchains. XRP has seen its market dominance increase by over 200% since 2019, while BNB and Solana have posted 40% and 344% growth, respectively, since 2023.

Ethereum’s weakening position is also reflected in DeFi metrics, where its share of total value locked (TVL) has fallen from 61.2% in February 2024 to 51.7%, even as Solana's TVL dominance has surged 172% over the same period.

Several factors are contributing to Ethereum's underperformance, including weak institutional demand highlighted by negative ETF flows, a sluggish derivatives market, and intensifying competition from alternative chains.

Technical analysis suggests further downside potential. ETH’s recent price action is forming a bear flag pattern on the daily chart, typically a signal of continued bearish momentum.

A close below the $1,600 support level would confirm the pattern, potentially triggering a 33% drop that could send ETH down to $1,100.

The relative strength index (RSI) also remains under 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook. While Ethereum continues to lead in TVL, its eroding dominance and technical weaknesses suggest that more volatility may lie ahead.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of April 19, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $1,597.96, showing a modest daily gain of 0.84%. The price remains within a falling trend channel, indicating continued bearish sentiment. There is no visible support nearby, suggesting further downside potential. Immediate resistance stands at $2,220, a key level to watch for any bullish reversal.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis

As of April 19, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $84,880. In the short term, BTC is consolidating between support at $84,000 and resistance at $87,300. A breakout from this range could define the next price direction. Medium-term indicators remain bearish, with a key support level at $70,000 and resistance near $92,500, suggesting continued downside risk. Long-term analysis is mildly bullish, with support at $72,000 and resistance at $106,000, pointing to a potential continuation of the broader uptrend if support holds.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at $1,500; Resistance at $2,200

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $84,000; Resistance at $87,300

BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:

The BTC to ETH rate has increased over the week, exhibiting a consistent and strong upward trend, rising from 52.21 ETH on April 5 to a high of 53.65 ETH on April 17, before settling at 53.13%.

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Hot Coin: $PAXG🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into the PAX Gold with the ticker: $PAXG.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and don’t seem to stop anytime soon:

What is the project about?

Paxos Gold (PAXG) is a digital asset that represents ownership of physical gold. Each PAXG token is backed by one fine troy ounce of London Good Delivery gold, securely stored in LBMA-approved vaults in London.

Issued by Paxos Trust Company, a regulated financial institution under the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), PAXG combines the stability of gold with the flexibility of blockchain technology. This allows investors to own, trade, and redeem physical gold with the ease of a digital token. ​

Why is the project exciting now?

There are four main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Gold Price Surge and 43% Yearly Growth

• Safe-Haven Demand and DeFi Accessibility

• Exchange Delistings Driving Urgency and Visibility

• Strong Market Performance and Positive Sentiment

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