TL;DR

• BTC is up & ETH is up

• BTC underperformed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $ETH

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC up 11.6% and ETH up by 12.6%:

Bitcoin dominance increased over the week, starting at 60.84% and reaching a high of 61.62%, before settling at 61.27%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin Market Update:

Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrowing range between $91,700 and $94,500, but signs point toward an imminent breakout as on-chain and technical indicators align in favor of a move toward the $100,000 mark.

The convergence of rising open interest, negative funding rates, and bullish chart formations is setting the stage for a potential short squeeze that could drive prices significantly higher.

Rising Open Interest vs. Negative Funding Rates

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s funding rates dropped as low as -0.023% even as open interest surged by 15%, signaling growing short positions against an upward price movement.

This rare divergence suggests that a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to buy back positions during a sudden price rally, may be brewing.

Analysts at Jlabs Digital highlighted the bullishness of this setup, stating that "a rally with negative funding and rising OI is rare and bullish," implying there is still momentum left in the current trend.

Key Resistance at $95K Defines Breakout Zone

Market analysts are closely watching the $95,000 resistance level as the key threshold that Bitcoin must break to shift from consolidation to a full-fledged uptrend.

AlphaBTC noted that "Bitcoin consolidating under resistance" and emphasized that the price is likely to range between $93,000 and $95,000 until this level is decisively reclaimed.

Echoing this, analyst Jelle said, “A break above $94K and this sends a lot higher,” pointing to growing strength despite ongoing resistance.

QCP Capital observed increased demand for call options at the $95K strike for both April and May expirations.

In their April 25 note to investors, they wrote, "With macro risks temporarily subdued and trade tensions cooling, BTC is likely to consolidate in a narrow $90K–$94.5K range while awaiting a catalyst for a decisive push toward the elusive $100K mark."

Bullish Chart Structures Support Breakout Narrative

Multiple technical chart formations support the bullish case. A textbook double bottom pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart points to a price target of $100,575, while a bull pennant on the hourly timeframe projects a move toward $100,900.

On the three-day chart, Bitcoin recently broke out of a falling wedge pattern, with a projected move toward $102,270. Each of these patterns is reinforced by supportive moving averages and a surge in breakout volume, indicating strong buying interest.

Liquidity Cluster and Profitability Drive Market Sentiment

Data from CoinGlass reveals a dense concentration of short liquidations around the $100,000 level, acting as a liquidity magnet for market makers. This cluster increases the probability of a price squeeze toward six figures.

Additionally, Glassnode data shows that 87.3% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in profit, up from 82.7% in March. Such high profitability levels often precede euphoric market phases, further bolstering bullish sentiment.

With multiple indicators aligning, Bitcoin appears poised for a breakout. A successful reclaim of $95,000 could initiate a sharp move toward the $100,000 level in the coming days.

ETHEREUM

Ethereum Struggles to Confirm $1.4K as a Generational Bottom Amid Mixed Data

Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded above $1,700 following over two weeks of sustained selling pressure, but analysts are divided over whether the $1,400 level marked a true generational bottom. Despite the short-term price recovery, ETH has underperformed the broader altcoin market by 23% year-to-date.

Crypto traders such as 0xMontBlanc have suggested Ethereum is on the verge of a “generational” bull run due to its decentralized finance infrastructure. However, data does not fully support such optimism.

Daily Ethereum fees have plunged 95% since January, indicating a sharp decline in onchain activity and network demand. This reduced usage has led to ETH becoming inflationary, as the current burn mechanism cannot offset the issuance required for staking rewards.

Despite Ethereum maintaining dominance in Total Value Locked (TVL), the metric has failed to reignite investor interest.

At the same time, optimism is shifting toward competitors like Solana (SOL) and XRP, particularly with rising hopes for spot ETF approvals in the U.S.. This development could dilute institutional attention currently focused on ETH and Bitcoin.

US-listed spot Ether ETFs have also faced challenges, recording $10 million in net outflows between April 21 and 23. Meanwhile, similar Bitcoin products witnessed record-breaking inflows during the same period, further weighing on Ethereum’s institutional appeal.

Historical trends suggest ETH rallies often lack longevity. Previous surges in 2021 and 2022 were followed by steep corrections and long recovery periods. These patterns have encouraged investors to take profits quickly, capping Ethereum's upside potential.

While some still believe ETH may outperform briefly, others caution that another 15% underperformance relative to Bitcoin remains possible. In the absence of strong network fundamentals or new narratives, the case for a sustained Ethereum bull run remains uncertain.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of April 26, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $1,797.33 after gaining 2.14% on the day. The price has broken above the ceiling of its medium-term falling trend, suggesting a potential shift toward a more stable or upward movement. Key support lies at $1,420, while resistance is found at $2,220. Although short-term momentum appears strong, the longer-term trend remains weighed down by a 66-day loss of 32.66%.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis

As of April 26, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $94,765. In the short term, BTC has broken above key resistance at $93,000, with momentum supported by an RSI above 70, signaling a potential continuation toward $102,800. Medium-term signals remain slightly positive, with support at $92,364 and continued strength above $92,500 indicating bullish pressure. The long-term trend is neutral, with Bitcoin trading within a rising channel and approaching major resistance at $106,000.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at $1,420; Resistance at $2,220

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $93,000; Resistance at $106,000

BTC/ETH ratio has decreased:

The BTC to ETH rate has decreased over the week, exhibiting a consistent and strong downward trend, starting at 55.53 ETH on April 21 to a low of 52.24 ETH on April 23, before settling at 52.68%.

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Hot Coin: $ETH🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into Ethereum with the ticker: $ETH.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and don’t seem to stop anytime soon:

What is the project about?

Ethereum continues to hold its position as the dominant Proof-of-Stake blockchain, supporting a wide range of decentralized applications through its robust smart contract functionality.

As the first blockchain to introduce smart contracts, Ethereum has developed the most extensive ecosystem in the decentralized finance space, powering everything from decentralized exchanges to lending and borrowing protocols.

Its influence extends further through a growing number of Layer 2 scaling solutions, which aim to reduce transaction costs and improve network efficiency. Arbitrum, for example, aggregates multiple transactions into a single submission to the Ethereum mainnet, significantly enhancing throughput. Polygon’s Proof-of-Stake sidechain operates alongside Ethereum to offer faster and more cost-effective transactions, helping to improve user experience across dApps.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are four main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Sharp 10% price surge amid easing geopolitical tensions

• Massive short liquidations fuel upward momentum

• Rising derivatives activity and bullish funding rates

• Technical breakout targets $2,100 resistance

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