TL;DR

• BTC is up & ETH is down

• BTC over-performed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $TRUMP

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is up this week, with BTC up by 3.3% and ETH down by 0.2%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 54.7% to a high of 55.79% and ending at 55.2%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin's market momentum faced mixed signals this week as price action and on-chain metrics painted a complex picture for investors. After a 3% surge on Jan. 24, Bitcoin briefly touched $105,750, fueled by optimism surrounding a new executive order from The U.S. President Donald Trump.

The directive established a working group on digital asset markets, sparking speculation about the potential creation of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve.

While no concrete plans for such a reserve were confirmed, investor enthusiasm was buoyed by comments from Bitcoin advocate Senator Cynthia Lummis, who hinted at significant developments in the digital asset space.

This bullish sentiment was reflected in institutional flows, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording six consecutive days of capital inflows totaling $2.9 billion. The rise in ETF investments signals growing confidence in Bitcoin among institutional players, who view ETFs as a regulated gateway to exposure.

At the same time, technical indicators added to the bullish narrative, as Bitcoin broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the three-day chart, suggesting a potential rally to $128,000 by March 2025. This optimistic forecast aligns with broader market expectations of Bitcoin reaching lofty targets, with some analysts projecting prices as high as $150,000 in 2025.

However, concerns are emerging as key on-chain metrics signal caution. CryptoQuant’s Index of Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI), which aggregates seven critical metrics including the Puell Multiple and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), entered the "distribution region" this week.

Historically, this zone has preceded market corrections and the onset of bearish trends. While the IBCI has not yet hit the 100% threshold associated with definitive cycle tops, its current position suggests that Bitcoin may be approaching a turning point.

The Puell Multiple, often used to gauge miner profitability and market tops, remains below critical danger levels, offering some reassurance for now.

Short-term risks are also underscored by analyst Timothy Peterson, who highlighted a strong correlation between the current bull run and the 2015–2017 cycle. He predicts that Bitcoin could reach $137,000 in this cycle before retracing to a local bottom below $100,000.

This forecast aligns with CryptoQuant’s cautionary stance, suggesting that while further growth is possible, the market is not immune to corrections in the near term. Peterson has also maintained a long-term outlook of $1.5 million per Bitcoin by 2035, underscoring the asset’s potential in the broader financial ecosystem.

Broader macroeconomic factors remain pivotal for Bitcoin’s trajectory. The executive order from the Trump administration highlights increasing government focus on digital assets, which could influence market dynamics in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price action continues to resonate with institutional and retail sentiment, as evidenced by recent inflows into ETFs and bullish breakout patterns. Yet, as on-chain indicators and analyst warnings suggest, the road ahead may not be entirely smooth.

As Bitcoin consolidates around the $105,000 mark, it remains at the crossroads of optimism and caution. The interplay between government policies, institutional inflows, and technical signals will likely shape its near-term performance. With key levels like $90,000 and $137,000 under watch, the market faces a critical phase where both opportunities and risks are amplified.

Ethereum (ETH) has gained 7.51% recently, reaching an intraday high of $3,421 on January 24 after recovering above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA), following a brief correction. This price rise is in line with the broader market recovery, as Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.6% and other altcoins, including Solana (SOL) and XRP, also posted gains.

The recent market optimism is fueled by the U.S. President's executive order on January 23, which supports digital assets and aims to strengthen the U.S.'s leadership in the digital economy. This positive development has boosted investor confidence across the crypto space, including Ethereum.

ETH’s price is holding strong above key support between $3,200 and $3,390, a region with significant buying activity. If this support level holds, ETH could target the 50-day SMA at $3,502, with analysts eyeing $4,109 as the next significant level.

Ethereum has also benefited from positive inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, with $396.5 million added in the past week. This, alongside institutional interest, strengthens Ethereum’s bullish outlook. Analysts project ETH could reach up to $7,000 by Q1 2025, driven by regulatory developments and continued growth within its ecosystem.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of January 24, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $3,334.96, having recently broken the floor of its rising trend channel, signaling a weaker initial rise. Despite this, the price has surged following a positive signal from an inverse head and shoulders formation, meeting the target at $3,153. Immediate support is at $3,300, with resistance at $3,500. Further movement is possible if the price maintains a break above the $3,300 resistance.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of January 24, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $104,609. The short-term outlook is positive, with support at $92,500 and no immediate resistance, indicating further upward potential. The medium-term view is neutral, with Bitcoin testing resistance at $106,000; a breakout above this could signal more gains. In the long term, the trend remains bullish, with support at $72,000 and no resistance in sight, suggesting continued upward momentum.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at $3,300; Resistance at $3,500.

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $92,500; Resistance at $106,000.

Market Outlook:

Bitcoin's market shows mixed signals. Bullish sentiment, driven by institutional inflows and potential U.S. policy moves, contrasts with on-chain indicators suggesting a cycle top may be near. While further upside to $137,000 is possible, caution is advised as risks of a correction grow.

Ethereum (ETH) is gaining momentum, driven by strong market sentiment and institutional inflows, particularly into Ethereum ETFs. With the recent executive order supporting digital assets, analysts project ETH could reach $7,000 by Q1 2025.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:

Over the past six days, the BTC to ETH conversion rate has experienced a general increase. Bitcoin has strengthened against Ethereum, rising by 1.43% on January 24, and showing a notable gain of 6.05% over the past 30 days. While there were some minor fluctuations, such as a slight decrease on January 23 (-2.36%) and smaller dips on January 19 and 20, the overall trend has been positive, with Bitcoin increasing in value relative to Ethereum.

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Hot Coin: $TRUMP 🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into Official Trump’s token with the ticker: $TRUMP.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and don’t seem to stop any time soon:

What is the project about?

The Official Trump Meme Coin ($TRUMP) is a Solana-based cryptocurrency inspired by Donald Trump, launched to celebrate his ideals and presidency.

Touted as the first high-profile meme token tied to a U.S. President, $TRUMP blends humor, politics, and blockchain innovation to create a viral phenomenon. The coin is managed by Trump-affiliated entities CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, emphasizing community engagement and political branding.

While $TRUMP is officially marketed as a non-investment opportunity, its rapid adoption and market performance have positioned it as a speculative asset in the world of cryptocurrencies.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are four main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Historic Branding

• Explosive Price Action

• Cultural and Political Significance

• Rapid Market Adoption

Subscribe to WAGMI Premium to read the rest.