TL;DR

• BTC is down & ETH is down

• BTC over-performed ETH this week 

• Bitcoin dominance is up

• The hot coin we look at this week is $BERA

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BTC & ETH Market Update 📈

Crypto is down this week, with BTC down by 1.1% and ETH down by 2.1%:

Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 57.4% to a high of 58.25% and ending at 58.0%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.

It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.

Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a recovery, briefly touching $99,500 on Feb. 21 before facing resistance. While market sentiment remains mixed, analysts suggest a weekly close above $97,000 could set the stage for an all-time high (ATH) push.

Bitcoin’s recent price movement reflects a rebound from its Feb. 18 low of $95,000, marking a 6% increase. Despite this, the derivatives market signals a lack of bullish conviction.

The Bitcoin futures premium, a key indicator of market sentiment, has remained subdued since the rejection at $102,000 on Feb. 3. Typically, a premium between 5% and 10% indicates a neutral market, yet the recent price jump to $99,500 has failed to ignite a sustained bullish trend.

A notable factor contributing to Bitcoin’s brief surge was China’s revised M1 monetary supply data. Investors initially perceived this as an expansionary move, fueling optimism. However, the methodology behind the data was later clarified to include individual checking accounts and holdings in non-bank platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay.

Despite record-breaking credit growth, with new loans reaching $702 billion in January—the highest since 1992—Bitcoin traders remained cautious. Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale, noted that policymakers appear to be stimulating the economy.

Technical analysts emphasize the importance of Bitcoin maintaining key support levels. Trader Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC must close above $97,000 weekly to confirm its higher low support, a critical factor for maintaining bullish momentum.

An accompanying chart shows Bitcoin sitting on immediate support at $97,028, within a triangular market structure. Should Bitcoin hold this level, it could sustain its upward trajectory.

Fellow analyst Warren Muppet pointed out Bitcoin’s trading above $98,000 for the first time since Feb. 4. He noted that a confirmed daily close above this level could trigger a rally toward ATH levels. Conversely, a rejection at $98,000 would signal a potential short opportunity.

The options market echoes the subdued enthusiasm seen in futures. The 25% delta skew indicator, which gauges demand for put (sell) options relative to calls (buy), remains within a neutral range at 5%. The last significant bullish sentiment was observed on Jan. 26, when Bitcoin approached $105,000.

In the stablecoin market, USDT’s premium in China remains at 0.5%, indicating a lack of heightened demand. Typically, a premium above 2% signals strong cryptocurrency interest, but traders appear unmoved by recent price movements.

On the regulatory front, positive news emerged as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced it would drop charges against Coinbase, improving sentiment around institutional adoption.

Additionally, Howard Lutnick, former CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and a vocal Bitcoin advocate, was confirmed as the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, bolstering hopes for a more favorable crypto policy.

Ethereum's price dynamics have been shaped by contrasting market forces, with whale accumulation countering large institutional sell-offs, while external factors such as security breaches have introduced volatility.

Ethereum whales have been aggressively accumulating, purchasing approximately $12.98 million worth of ETH, signaling bullish sentiment. This buying spree coincides with major institutional activity, as Golem Network moved 4,850 ETH—valued at $13.26 million—to exchanges, likely for liquidation. Such large-scale sell-offs could temper bullish momentum and contribute to short-term volatility.

Analysts have drawn parallels between Ethereum’s current price movement and Bitcoin’s third market cycle. Historically, Bitcoin’s third cycle exhibited consolidation followed by a significant breakout.

Ethereum’s current trajectory shows a similar pattern within a converging triangle, potentially leading to a breakout toward $6,000 if history repeats itself. However, market unpredictability remains a key factor, as deviations from past cycles could result in stagnation or a breakdown below critical support levels.

Adding to market instability, a security breach at crypto exchange Bybit resulted in the loss of $1.4 billion worth of Ethereum and stETH. CEO Ben Zhou confirmed that the attack stemmed from a manipulated transaction altering the smart contract logic of the exchange’s ETH cold wallet. While Bybit assured users of its solvency and the safety of remaining funds, the hack contributed to a 3% drop in Ethereum’s price, bringing it to $2,727.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) Analysis:

As of February 21, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $2,750.71 after breaking a short-term resistance level. The price remains within a horizontal trend channel, indicating continued movement in the same direction. Key support is at $2,240, while resistance is at $2,900. Negative volume balance suggests short-term weakness despite recent gains

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:

As of February 21, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $98,244, up 1.13% on the day. The short-term outlook is neutral, with support at $95,200 and resistance at $101,600. A break above $101,600 could signal further upside toward $104,810, while a drop below $95,200 may indicate weakness. The medium-term trend remains positive, with Bitcoin trading within a horizontal range between $93,098 and $104,810. In the long term, BTC is in a strong uptrend, with no visible resistance and solid support at $72,000, suggesting continued bullish momentum.

Expected Trading Ranges:

• Ethereum (ETH): Support at $2,240; Resistance at $2,900.

• Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $95,200; Resistance at $101,600

Market Outlook:

Outlook: Can Bitcoin Push Higher? While Bitcoin’s momentum remains fragile, key support levels at $97,500 and $96,450, identified by Glassnode data, suggest a strong base for further gains. If Bitcoin sustains a weekly close above $97,000, analysts believe an attack on the ATH is likely. Breaking the $100,000 psychological barrier would be a major confirmation for a bullish continuation.

Outlook: Eth Key Levels to Watch With significant whale activity, institutional movements, and external security risks influencing Ethereum’s price, investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels as the market navigates ongoing volatility.

BTC/ETH ratio has seen a decrease:

Over the last six days, the BTC to ETH exchange rate has shown a general downward trend, decreasing from 36.14 ETH on Feb 16 to 35.92 ETH on Feb 22. While there was a brief increase on Feb 18 (35.85 ETH, +2.56%), the overall movement has been negative, with notable drops on Feb 17 (-3.29%) and Feb 19 (-0.72%). The rate has declined by 0.65% in the last 24 hours, confirming a weakening trend of Bitcoin against Ethereum over the past week.

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Hot Coin: $BERA🔥

In this week’s newsletter, we dive into Berachain’s token with the ticker: $BERA.

The price action and volume have been growing consistently and don’t seem to stop any time soon:

What is the project about?

Berachain is a next-generation layer-1 blockchain designed to optimize liquidity and capital efficiency through its unique proof-of-liquidity (PoL) consensus mechanism. Unlike traditional proof-of-stake (PoS) systems, Berachain requires validators to provide liquidity, ensuring deep market participation and reducing sell pressure on the native token.

Built as an EVM-identical chain, Berachain allows seamless integration for Ethereum-based applications while offering enhanced scalability through BeaconKit, a modular consensus framework.

By aligning incentives among liquidity providers, developers, and users, Berachain aims to create a highly liquid, capital-efficient blockchain that fosters innovation in decentralized finance (DeFi) and beyond.

Why is the project exciting now?

There are four main reasons why we feature this project in this week’s newsletter:

• Explosive Price Surge and High Trading Volume

• Strong DeFi Ecosystem Growth

• Innovative “Proof of Liquidity” Model

• Enhanced Capital Efficiency for DeFi

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